ISLAMABAD — I returned last night from two and half days in Lahore, where I spent some time socially with a few well-educated business associates and asked their opinions on the war in Afghanistan, the one here in Pakistan and the political mindset of average Pakistanis.
But first, as I sit to eat a late afternoon breakfast (I slept most of the day as I’m going to be up for the next 36-48 hours traveling back to Cairo) I thought I’d comment on the media coverage of the war here in Pakistan, as seen through the eyes of Pakistan’s media.
Territorial gains more compelling than body counts
Last night on BBC World Service, they proudly announced their Islamabad correspondent was the first to be allowed into Swat with the Army since the battles began there some weeks ago. For her, it was an unparalleled opportunity to stand silhouetted atop a high ridge line with a battlefield stretching across the valley behind her: a classic war correspondent pose. She reported on the ferocity of the fighting so far and foreshadowed that even more vicious battles were soon to come.
The Pakistani media last night spent much of their time interviewing wounded officers and soldiers who’d destroyed the Taliban on that same ridge. The elite commandos conducted a helicopter assault onto the knife-edge ridge, jumping from Mi-24 Hip helicopters onto a hot LZ within 10 meters of Taliban trenches. The Captain interviewed on Dawn TV was the first to exit his helicopter and, almost immediately, was gunned down. Seven hours later, the government troops had cleared the ridge of enemy fighters who fought to the last man. Seven hours and one area of 800 x 800 meters cleared of enemy.
Each story in the Pakistani press mentions the number of casualties, but unlike their western counterparts in Canada and the US, they don’t typically keep a running tally. Today’s story talks about six Pakistani soldiers killed, and 75 wounded. But there’s no running tally. By my count, the number of Pakistan soldiers and police killed in the last three weeks must be well over 100 with hundreds more wounded.
In Canada, each reporter (if not every Canadian) knows exactly how many Canadian soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan since 2001.
Most Pakistani press headlines this morning were focussed on the districts that have been freed of Taliban — not the death count. And a number of the districts have been freed. Either through combat, or as happened yesterday in Lower Dir, by consensus: the Taliban there met with a jirga of local elders and agreed unilaterally to pull out of the district. And they did so. Was this a sign of Taliban compromise? Unlikely. The Pakistani government is giving the Taliban a whuppin’ and they are running back to safer ground before it reaches them. The key question, of course, is: will they be back?
The answer, unfortunately, is almost certainly: Yes, if the government doesn’t make that impossible.
Differing views of Pakistan’s IDPs
Once the BBC reporter had concluded her hilltop posing, the news service transitioned to a story about the gargantuan wave of human suffering embodied in two million internally displaced persons (IDPs) forced from their homes in the war zone. The UN, already in the area providing relief to Pashtuns in refugee camps along the Pakistani-Afghan border, is trying to rapidly scale up. Some 340,000 IDPs are currently housed in makeshift refugee camps and the UN has called for $540 million to increase this capacity and make it safer from disease and disaster. The remaining IDPs are fending for themselves.
Everywhere I go in Pakistan, I see calls for Pakistanis to donate to a relief fund to help their displaced countrymen: on billboards, on buses, on taxis, in every newspaper, on TV and in speeches by countless politicians… and, if there is a country on Earth with countless politicians, surely Pakistan is it.
Yet, the IDPs are not viewed universally as victims. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) is vociferously calling for all IDPs to be “restricted” to government-run refugee camps and to be “registered” to ensure that no Taliban are sneaking into Karachi and other cities disguised as innocent Pakistanis. There is little popular support for this idea here, with most people viewing IDPs as Pakistani citizens who are free to move about the country as, well… Pakistani citizens.
MQM is likely using this issue as wedge issue to differentiate itself from political competition and to play to the fears of Karachi and Sindh residents fearful of increasing violence in their communities. MQM is right about one thing, though: it is entirely likely that some “Taliban” are embedded with the fleeing masses. This, of course, is irrelevant for two simple reasons.
First, there is nothing to stop Taliban “miscreants,” as they are universally called by government spokespeople here, from sneaking into any city on any day, dressed as regular people. Second, many Taliban fighters almost certainly are regular people who have taken up arms for money or vengeance. Separate them from the compelling issue, however, and most of those do not carry the flame of insurgency very far on their own. Those that do will continue to be a threat whether they are “registered” or not.
Growing anti-Americanism
As I discussed politics and the current security troubles with my Pakistani friends, they all remarked on a growing sense of anti-Americanism amongst even the most educated and pro-western of their friends and associates. Triggered, they believe, by the seemingly increasing use of drones to launch missile attacks on Pakistani soil which, inevitably kill regular people in addition to Taliban fighters. This is, no doubt, true because as I’ve noted above many Taliban fighters are otherwise regular people and, as such, they live closely embedded with their wives, children, parents and neighbours: both as a strategy, hoping it will dissuade attacks, and as a lifestyle — they’re family.
With the Pakistani Army now actively engaged in the battle against “miscreants,” it may be time for the U.S. to revisit its drone strategy. It will have to be a very high value target to outweigh the risk of turning 185 million everyday Pakistanis further against the U.S.
While the U.S. is pouring development billions into helping to stabilize the rest of the country, many previously “westernized” Pakistanis of the academic and leadership classes are increasingly disinclined to accept U.S. dollars they view as tainted with the blood of their countrymen.
I’m not sure what the answer is, but it’s a very fine line for the west, in particular the U.S. to walk. Although the Pakistani Army is engaged all-out against the Taliban today… there is no assurance this will continue to be the case tomorrow. Already, generals point in their press conferences to the fact that six captured Taliban were of Arab and Uzbek origin and hint that they have “corroborated intelligence” of a “hidden hand” “coordinating and equipping” the “miscreants.” “Hidden hand” is of course, a universally recognized government code-word for India.
Old habits die hard.